{"id":2396,"date":"2025-10-21T20:27:30","date_gmt":"2025-10-21T12:27:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.remarrexxar.com\/?p=2396"},"modified":"2025-10-21T20:27:31","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T12:27:31","slug":"%e6%96%b0%e7%a7%80%e6%8f%90%e5%89%8d%e7%bb%ad%e7%ba%a6%e5%90%88%e5%90%8c%e7%9a%84%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.remarrexxar.com\/?p=2396","title":{"rendered":"\u65b0\u79c0\u63d0\u524d\u7eed\u7ea6\u5408\u540c\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u85aa\u8d44\u6570\u636e\u6765\u81easpotrac+BBR\uff0c\u6392\u540d\u6570\u636e\u6765\u81ea\u7bee\u5708\u5373\u662f\u539f\u70b9\u516c\u4f17\u53f7<\/p>\n\n\n\n<table id=\"tbl\" class=\"display\" style=\"width:100%\">\n<thead><tr><th>player<\/th><th>first year salary<\/th><th>cap_share<\/th><th>extension_year_order<\/th><th>first_year_order<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr><td>Ja Morant        <\/td><td>$34,005,250      <\/td><td>25.00%   <\/td><td>15<\/td><td>18<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Darius Garland   <\/td><td>$34,005,250      <\/td><td>25.00%   <\/td><td>32<\/td><td>35<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Zion Williamson  <\/td><td>$34,005,250      <\/td><td>25.00%   <\/td><td>25<\/td><td>28<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Jordan Poole     <\/td><td>$27,455,357      <\/td><td>20.18%   <\/td><td>64<\/td><td>111<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Tyler Herro      <\/td><td>$27,000,000      <\/td><td>19.85%   <\/td><td>88<\/td><td>69<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>RJ Barrett       <\/td><td>$23,883,929      <\/td><td>17.56%   <\/td><td>122<\/td><td>147<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>De&#8217;Andre Hunter  <\/td><td>$20,089,286      <\/td><td>14.77%   <\/td><td>157<\/td><td>152<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Keldon Johnson   <\/td><td>$20,000,000      <\/td><td>14.70%   <\/td><td>99<\/td><td>110<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Kevin Porter Jr. <\/td><td>$15,860,000      <\/td><td>11.66%   <\/td><td>188<\/td><td>130<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Brandon Clarke   <\/td><td>$12,500,000      <\/td><td>9.19%    <\/td><td>100<\/td><td>157<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Nassir Little    <\/td><td>$6,250,000       <\/td><td>4.59%    <\/td><td>357<\/td><td>224<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>LaMelo Ball      <\/td><td>$35,147,000      <\/td><td>25.00%   <\/td><td>44<\/td><td>48<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Anthony Edwards  <\/td><td>$42,176,400      <\/td><td>30.00%   <\/td><td>24<\/td><td>14<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Tyrese Haliburton<\/td><td>$42,176,400      <\/td><td>30.00%   <\/td><td>16<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Desmond Bane     <\/td><td>$34,005,250      <\/td><td>24.19%   <\/td><td>38<\/td><td>42<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Devin Vassell    <\/td><td>$29,347,826      <\/td><td>20.88%   <\/td><td>108<\/td><td>67<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Jaden McDaniels  <\/td><td>$22,586,207      <\/td><td>16.07%   <\/td><td>103<\/td><td>140<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Onyeka Okongwu   <\/td><td>$14,000,000      <\/td><td>9.96%    <\/td><td>149<\/td><td>170<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Isaiah Stewart   <\/td><td>$15,000,000      <\/td><td>10.67%   <\/td><td>198<\/td><td>181<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Deni Avdija      <\/td><td>$15,625,000      <\/td><td>11.11%   <\/td><td>204<\/td><td>103<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Josh Green       <\/td><td>$12,654,321      <\/td><td>9.00%    <\/td><td>193<\/td><td>234<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Cole Anthony     <\/td><td>$12,900,000      <\/td><td>9.18%    <\/td><td>191<\/td><td>240<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Aaron Nesmith    <\/td><td>$11,000,000      <\/td><td>7.82%    <\/td><td>268<\/td><td>126<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Zeke Nnaji       <\/td><td>$8,888,889       <\/td><td>6.32%    <\/td><td>356<\/td><td>386<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Payton Pritchard <\/td><td>$6,696,429       <\/td><td>4.76%    <\/td><td>277<\/td><td>180<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Scottie Barnes   <\/td><td>$38,661,750      <\/td><td>25.00%   <\/td><td>34<\/td><td>52<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Cade Cunningham  <\/td><td>$46,394,100      <\/td><td>30.00%   <\/td><td>61<\/td><td>18<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Evan Mobley      <\/td><td>$46,394,100      <\/td><td>30.00%   <\/td><td>55<\/td><td>21<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Franz Wagner     <\/td><td>$38,661,750      <\/td><td>25.00%   <\/td><td>40<\/td><td>26<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Alperen Sengun   <\/td><td>$33,944,954      <\/td><td>21.95%   <\/td><td>46<\/td><td>28<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Jalen Suggs      <\/td><td>$35,000,000      <\/td><td>22.63%   <\/td><td>93<\/td><td>88<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Jalen Johnson    <\/td><td>$30,000,000      <\/td><td>19.40%   <\/td><td>66<\/td><td>58<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Trey Murphy      <\/td><td>$25,000,000      <\/td><td>16.17%   <\/td><td>76<\/td><td>65<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Jalen Green      <\/td><td>$33,584,499      <\/td><td>21.72%   <\/td><td>116<\/td><td>118<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Corey Kispert    <\/td><td>$13,975,000      <\/td><td>9.04%    <\/td><td>211<\/td><td>266<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Moses Moody      <\/td><td>$11,574,075      <\/td><td>7.48%    <\/td><td>236<\/td><td>171<\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Paolo Banchero   <\/td><td>$41,500,000      <\/td><td>25.00%   <\/td><td>34<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Jalen Williams   <\/td><td>$41,500,000      <\/td><td>25.00%   <\/td><td>19<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Chet Holmgren    <\/td><td>$41,500,000      <\/td><td>25.00%   <\/td><td>40<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Keegan Murray    <\/td><td>$24,137,931      <\/td><td>14.54%   <\/td><td>102<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Christian Braun  <\/td><td>$21,551,724      <\/td><td>12.98%   <\/td><td>92<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Jabari Smith Jr. <\/td><td>$23,643,411      <\/td><td>14.24%   <\/td><td>144<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Dyson Daniels    <\/td><td>$22,321,429      <\/td><td>13.45%   <\/td><td>69<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Shaedon Sharpe   <\/td><td>$20,089,286      <\/td><td>12.10%   <\/td><td>148<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr>\n<tr><td>Nikola Jovic     <\/td><td>$16,200,000      <\/td><td>9.76%    <\/td><td>188<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%E5%8F%AF%E8%A7%86%E5%8C%96\">\u53ef\u89c6\u5316<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u751f\u6210\u4e86\u4e24\u5f20\u56fe\uff1a\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><code>images\/cap_share_vs_extension_order.png<\/code>\uff1ax=cap_share (%), y=extension_year_order\uff08\u5012\u5e8f\u663e\u793a\uff1a\u8f83\u5c0f\u6392\u4f4d\u5728\u4e0a\uff09\uff0c\u70b9\u4e0a\u6807\u6ce8\u7403\u5458\u540d\uff1b\u6dfb\u52a0\u4e86\u4e00\u6761\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52\u7ebf\u5e76\u4f7f\u7528&nbsp;<code>adjustText<\/code>&nbsp;\u907f\u514d\u6807\u7b7e\u91cd\u53e0\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><code>images\/cap_share_vs_first_year_order.png<\/code>\uff1ax=cap_share (%), y=first_year_order\uff08\u5012\u5e8f\u663e\u793a\uff09\uff1b\u540c\u6837\u5305\u542b\u56de\u5f52\u7ebf\u4e0e\u81ea\u52a8\u8c03\u6574\u6807\u7b7e\u3002\u6b64\u56fe\u8fd8\u53e0\u52a0\u4e86\u5bf9 2026\/27 \u7f3a\u5931&nbsp;<code>first_year_order<\/code>&nbsp;\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u70b9\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u989c\u8272\u548c\u6807\u8bb0\u5e76\u5728\u6807\u7b7e\u540e\u52a0\u4e0a&nbsp;<code>(pred)<\/code>&nbsp;\u63d0\u793a\u5b83\u4eec\u4e3a\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e24\u56fe\u5747\u4f7f\u7528 Matplotlib \u7ed8\u5236\uff0clabels \u4f7f\u7528&nbsp;<code>adjustText<\/code>&nbsp;\u505a\u81ea\u52a8\u907f\u8ba9\u5e76\u7ed8\u5236\u7ec6\u5f15\u5bfc\u7ebf\uff08\u82e5\u73af\u5883\u4e0d\u652f\u6301 adjustText\uff0c\u5219\u505a\u7b80\u5355\u504f\u79fb\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56de\u9000\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E4%B8%8E%E9%A2%84%E6%B5%8B\">\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u9884\u6d4b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u5bf9\u8bad\u7ec3\u96c6\uff08\u5177\u6709 cap_share\u3001extension_year_order \u4e0e first_year_order \u7684\u884c\uff09\u4f7f\u7528\u6700\u5c0f\u4e8c\u4e58\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52\u3002\u7279\u5f81\u4e3a&nbsp;<code>[cap_share, extension_year_order]<\/code>\uff0c\u76ee\u6807\u4e3a&nbsp;<code>first_year_order<\/code>\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8bad\u7ec3\u7ed3\u679c\uff08\u8f93\u51fa\uff09\uff1a<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>first_year_order = 138.1780 + (-4.6010) * cap_share + 0.4414 * extension_year_order\nR^2 (training) = 0.7743  (n = 36)\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u57fa\u4e8e\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6211\u5bf9 2026\/27 \u4e2d\u7f3a\u5931&nbsp;<code>first_year_order<\/code>&nbsp;\u7684\u7403\u5458\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u4fdd\u5b58\u5728&nbsp;<code>images\/predictions_2026_27.csv<\/code>\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u9884\u6d4b\uff08\u9009\u5f55\uff09\uff1a<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>Paolo Banchero: predicted first_year_order = 38.16 (cap_share=25.00%, ext_order=34)\nJalen Williams: predicted first_year_order = 31.54 (cap_share=25.00%, ext_order=19)\nChet Holmgren: predicted first_year_order = 40.81 (cap_share=25.00%, ext_order=40)\nKeegan Murray: predicted first_year_order = 116.30 (cap_share=14.54%, ext_order=102)\n... (\u8be6\u89c1 images\/predictions_2026_27.csv)\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6ce8\uff1a\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u4e3a\u8fde\u7eed\u6570\uff08\u53ef\u4ee5\u56db\u820d\u4e94\u5165\u5230\u6574\u6570\u4ee5\u8868\u793a\u201c\u540d\u6b21\u201d\uff09\uff0c\u6570\u503c\u8d8a\u5c0f\u8868\u793a\u4f18\u5148\u7ea7\u8d8a\u9760\u524d\uff08rank \u8d8a\u9ad8\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%E8%B4%A8%E9%87%8F%E4%B8%8E%E5%81%87%E8%AE%BE\">\u8d28\u91cf\u4e0e\u5047\u8bbe<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u8be5\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8bbe&nbsp;<code>first_year_order<\/code>&nbsp;\u4e0e&nbsp;<code>cap_share<\/code>\u3001<code>extension_year_order<\/code>&nbsp;\u4e4b\u95f4\u5448\u8fd1\u4f3c\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u8bad\u7ec3 R^2=0.77 \u8868\u660e\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65b9\u5dee\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u6709\u7ea6 23% \u7684\u672a\u89e3\u91ca\u65b9\u5dee\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6570\u636e\u91cf\uff1a\u8bad\u7ec3\u6837\u672c\u4e3a 36 \u6761\uff0c\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u4e0d\u5927\uff1b\u56e0\u6b64\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u591f\u5065\u58ee\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u5f02\u5e38\u503c\u654f\u611f\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7279\u5f81\u65b9\u9762\uff1a<code>cap_share<\/code>&nbsp;\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u4e0e&nbsp;<code>extension_year_order<\/code>&nbsp;\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u76f8\u5dee\u8f83\u5927\uff08\u524d\u8005\u5728 4\u201330%\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u5728\u6570\u5341\u5230\u6570\u767e\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u505a\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u6a21\u578b\u7cfb\u6570\u53ef\u76f4\u63a5\u89e3\u91ca\uff1acap_share \u4e0a\u5347\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u9884\u6d4b\u7684 first_year_order\uff08\u610f\u5473\u7740 cap_share \u9ad8\u7684\u7403\u5458\u901a\u5e38\u9996\u5e74\u987a\u4f4d\u66f4\u9760\u524d\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.remarrexxar.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1024x614.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2399 lazyload\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"614\" src=\"https:\/\/www.remarrexxar.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1024x614.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2399\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.remarrexxar.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1024x614.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.remarrexxar.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-300x180.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.remarrexxar.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.remarrexxar.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.remarrexxar.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image.jpg 2000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.remarrexxar.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1-1024x614.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2400 lazyload\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"614\" src=\"https:\/\/www.remarrexxar.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1-1024x614.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2400\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.remarrexxar.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1-1024x614.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.remarrexxar.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1-300x180.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.remarrexxar.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.remarrexxar.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.remarrexxar.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-1.jpg 2000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u85aa\u8d44\u6570\u636e\u6765\u81easpotrac+BBR\uff0c\u6392\u540d\u6570\u636e\u6765\u81ea\u7bee\u5708\u5373\u662f\u539f\u70b9\u516c\u4f17\u53f7 player first yea [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - 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