原始数据，薪资数据来自spotrac+BBR，排名数据来自篮圈即是原点公众号
| player | first year salary | cap_share | extension_year_order | first_year_order |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja Morant | $34,005,250 | 25.00% | 15 | 18 |
| Darius Garland | $34,005,250 | 25.00% | 32 | 35 |
| Zion Williamson | $34,005,250 | 25.00% | 25 | 28 |
| Jordan Poole | $27,455,357 | 20.18% | 64 | 111 |
| Tyler Herro | $27,000,000 | 19.85% | 88 | 69 |
| RJ Barrett | $23,883,929 | 17.56% | 122 | 147 |
| De’Andre Hunter | $20,089,286 | 14.77% | 157 | 152 |
| Keldon Johnson | $20,000,000 | 14.70% | 99 | 110 |
| Kevin Porter Jr. | $15,860,000 | 11.66% | 188 | 130 |
| Brandon Clarke | $12,500,000 | 9.19% | 100 | 157 |
| Nassir Little | $6,250,000 | 4.59% | 357 | 224 |
| LaMelo Ball | $35,147,000 | 25.00% | 44 | 48 |
| Anthony Edwards | $42,176,400 | 30.00% | 24 | 14 |
| Tyrese Haliburton | $42,176,400 | 30.00% | 16 | 13 |
| Desmond Bane | $34,005,250 | 24.19% | 38 | 42 |
| Devin Vassell | $29,347,826 | 20.88% | 108 | 67 |
| Jaden McDaniels | $22,586,207 | 16.07% | 103 | 140 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | $14,000,000 | 9.96% | 149 | 170 |
| Isaiah Stewart | $15,000,000 | 10.67% | 198 | 181 |
| Deni Avdija | $15,625,000 | 11.11% | 204 | 103 |
| Josh Green | $12,654,321 | 9.00% | 193 | 234 |
| Cole Anthony | $12,900,000 | 9.18% | 191 | 240 |
| Aaron Nesmith | $11,000,000 | 7.82% | 268 | 126 |
| Zeke Nnaji | $8,888,889 | 6.32% | 356 | 386 |
| Payton Pritchard | $6,696,429 | 4.76% | 277 | 180 |
| Scottie Barnes | $38,661,750 | 25.00% | 34 | 52 |
| Cade Cunningham | $46,394,100 | 30.00% | 61 | 18 |
| Evan Mobley | $46,394,100 | 30.00% | 55 | 21 |
| Franz Wagner | $38,661,750 | 25.00% | 40 | 26 |
| Alperen Sengun | $33,944,954 | 21.95% | 46 | 28 |
| Jalen Suggs | $35,000,000 | 22.63% | 93 | 88 |
| Jalen Johnson | $30,000,000 | 19.40% | 66 | 58 |
| Trey Murphy | $25,000,000 | 16.17% | 76 | 65 |
| Jalen Green | $33,584,499 | 21.72% | 116 | 118 |
| Corey Kispert | $13,975,000 | 9.04% | 211 | 266 |
| Moses Moody | $11,574,075 | 7.48% | 236 | 171 |
| Paolo Banchero | $41,500,000 | 25.00% | 34 | |
| Jalen Williams | $41,500,000 | 25.00% | 19 | |
| Chet Holmgren | $41,500,000 | 25.00% | 40 | |
| Keegan Murray | $24,137,931 | 14.54% | 102 | |
| Christian Braun | $21,551,724 | 12.98% | 92 | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | $23,643,411 | 14.24% | 144 | |
| Dyson Daniels | $22,321,429 | 13.45% | 69 | |
| Shaedon Sharpe | $20,089,286 | 12.10% | 148 | |
| Nikola Jovic | $16,200,000 | 9.76% | 188 |
可视化
- 生成了两张图：
images/cap_share_vs_extension_order.png：x=cap_share (%), y=extension_year_order（倒序显示：较小排位在上），点上标注球员名；添加了一条线性回归线并使用adjustText避免标签重叠。images/cap_share_vs_first_year_order.png：x=cap_share (%), y=first_year_order（倒序显示）；同样包含回归线与自动调整标签。此图还叠加了对 2026/27 缺失first_year_order的预测点，使用不同颜色和标记并在标签后加上(pred)提示它们为模型预测值。
两图均使用 Matplotlib 绘制，labels 使用 adjustText 做自动避让并绘制细引导线（若环境不支持 adjustText，则做简单偏移作为回退）。
模型与预测
- 建模方法：对训练集（具有 cap_share、extension_year_order 与 first_year_order 的行）使用最小二乘线性回归。特征为
[cap_share, extension_year_order]，目标为first_year_order。 - 训练结果（输出）：
first_year_order = 138.1780 + (-4.6010) * cap_share + 0.4414 * extension_year_order
R^2 (training) = 0.7743 (n = 36)
- 基于该模型，我对 2026/27 中缺失
first_year_order的球员进行了预测，结果保存在images/predictions_2026_27.csv。主要预测（选录）：
Paolo Banchero: predicted first_year_order = 38.16 (cap_share=25.00%, ext_order=34)
Jalen Williams: predicted first_year_order = 31.54 (cap_share=25.00%, ext_order=19)
Chet Holmgren: predicted first_year_order = 40.81 (cap_share=25.00%, ext_order=40)
Keegan Murray: predicted first_year_order = 116.30 (cap_share=14.54%, ext_order=102)
... (详见 images/predictions_2026_27.csv)
注：预测值为连续数（可以四舍五入到整数以表示“名次”），数值越小表示优先级越靠前（rank 越高）。
质量与假设
- 该线性模型假设
first_year_order与cap_share、extension_year_order之间呈近似线性关系。训练 R^2=0.77 表明模型能解释大部分方差，但仍有约 23% 的未解释方差。 - 数据量：训练样本为 36 条，样本量不大；因此模型不够健壮，可能对异常值敏感。
- 特征方面：
cap_share的范围与extension_year_order的范围相差较大（前者在 4–30%，后者在数十到数百），但未做标准化。当前模型系数可直接解释：cap_share 上升会降低预测的 first_year_order（意味着 cap_share 高的球员通常首年顺位更靠前）。
